WHY WE are ENTERING A NEW ERA FOR MILITARY HELICOPTERS
The global military helicopter market is experiencing unforeseen increased demand, with significant defence budgets allocated for this particular sector.
The demand for military helicopters is being driven by rapidly evolving global dynamics, including:
• The resurgence of conventional state based threats
• The diminishing of traditional, rule based world order
• Political instability
• Ongoing war operations world wide
• Increasing threat from extremism and terrorism
This new demand, as well as the development of next generation compound helicopter designs and third generation tilt-rotorcrafts, marks the advent of a new era.
This era is likely to witness a significant expansion of the operational spectrum, capabilities and performance threshold of these machines compared to traditional helicopters, which will transform and redefine their role. It will also enhance effectiveness of helicopters in a wide range of military missions and operations, speeding up the replacement of the current generation platforms by the end of next decade.
DRONES IN THE MILITARY
This is the most mature market, where drones have long been used to keep pilots out of harm’s way while performing tasks like intelligence gathering or chemical detection.
Today’s soldiers work with drones of all sizes — from small, stealthy quadcopters the size of a bird to large, jet-sized aircraft.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research
Why rapid growth is projected for the civil helicopter market
The civil helicopter market continues to face significant headwind. However, the long term view of the market for civil helicopters is positive, with an increase in the degree and scope of use of civil helicopters. The upcoming revolutionary leap in technology is set to transform the market landscape significantly over the medium term. This has resulted in rapid projected growth in civil helicopter fleets, as well as their overall application across emerging markets.
Across the globe, demand is increasing for drone technology.
Estimated drone spending in USD, FY2017-FY2021
Source: DoD, Government of the UK, SIPRI, Defense News, Goldman Sachs Research
Why drones are taking over the skies
Drones are following in the path of other military applications, such as the Internet and GPS, to make their way into the mainstream – whether it’s given as a toy for Christmas, or used to out out a fire or deliver aid. Indeed, their uses are almost endless (performing construction surveys, inspecting pipelines, aiding in surveillance, helping farmers enhance yields).
As a result, drones are developing into popular recreational pastimes AND powerful business and military tools – with a potential commercial market to match.
According to Goldman Sachs “the combined commercial, consumer, civil government, and military drone market could reach a cumulative $US100 billion ($133 bn) between now and 2020, rivalling the size of the helicopter market, with ripple effects to areas such as insurance, camera makers, and component manufacturers.”
Goldman Sachs also believe that the full economic benefit may be a multiple of this, as other organisations benefit from the savings and efficiencies of unmanned flight. Here are some estimations for market growth:
• From almost zero today, it’s estimated that commercial use of drones will lead to a $US21 bn global market by 2020.
• Consumer adoption of this technology will generate a $US14 bn global market by 2020, with foreseeable mid-teens growth rates thereafter.
• US civil governments will spend $US3 bn within the US, from almost a nil base today.
• Military UAVs will skyrocket to a $US70 bn global market by 2020 with low double-digit growth rates well into the 2030s.
As you can see, drones are a billion dollar market that’s too big to ignore.
We are taking over the drone market
Zummo Flight Technologies is poised to take advantage of the military drone market for:
• Our patent pending circulation control blades allow us to carry significantly more payload than other drones. And payload is a major requirement for drones/UAVs to allow them to carry equipment and armaments.
Our capabilities are geared to two segments of the drone market:
• Small spying and surveillance drones
• Zummo proposed UAV(Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) and drone for civilian and military markets
THE CONSUMER MARKET
Flight, speed, dramatic photography – it’s easy to see why drones appeal to consumers. This is the largest non-military market today, and it’s still in its early stages.
Over the next few years, we expect consumer demand will continue to build. By 2020, we expect 7.8 million consumer drone shipments and $3.3 billion in revenue, versus only 450,000 shipments and $700 million in revenue in 2014.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research
the future with zummo
MILITARY DRONES OR UAVs (UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES) ARE CATEGORIZED AS FOLLOWS
• Small tactical unmanned aircraft systems
• Medium altitude long-endurance UAVs
• High-altitude endurance UAVs
• Unmanned combat systems
THE MISSIONS OF THESE DRONES/UAVs ARE AS FOLLOWS:
• Border security
• Search and rescue operations
• Combat operations
Prepare proposal to the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency to develop a combat unmanned aerial vehicle.
Estimated Cost $300,000 USD
Timeframe 2 – 3 Months
Develop a small demonstrator drone for spying and surveillance.
Estimated Cost $2,000,000
Timeframe 12 – 18 Months
Anticipate contract award from DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Project Agency) three months after submission of proposal.
Estimate $15,000,000 3-Year Development Program
Anticipate production of small surveillance/spying drones started 24 months after launch of in-house development project.
Estimated Selling Price $800,000 ea.
Year 1: 2 per month Revenues $19.2 m
Year 2: 4 per month Revenues $38.4 m
Year 3: 8 per month Revenues $76.8 m
NOTE: This forecast was generated after detailed discussions with our engineers and with staff personnel at our Congressional offices.
With the evolution of regulations, we see drones headed for new heights in the business world. The same safety, efficiency and cost benefits that appeal to the military make drones attractive for a wide range of business and civil government functions. The $100 billion market opportunity we forecast over the next five years is just the tip of the iceberg. Drones’ full economic potential is likely to be multiple times that number, as their ripple effects reverberate through the economy.
Source: Goldman Sachs Research